DHUnplugged #695: Fresh Frenzy

Fed in Focus - FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday.

Reddit IPO Frenzy!

Inflation - definitely not going away.

Announcing - A New Closest to The Pin

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Warm Up

- A New CTP Announced

- No Show Next week - business meetings out of town

- A not so surprising result in the Russian Elections

- An important change to stock trade settlements is coming

Market Update

- Fed in Focus - FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday

- Reddit IPO Frenzy

- Inflation - definitely not going away

- AI Frenzy - Culd Call This DHAI Unplugged - so much AI news to discuss

- Yield Frenzy

PPI Release

- After  a HOT CPI, PPI Comes in Hotter

- 0.6% on the core - but only 1.6% YoY

- The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in February.

- Prices for final demand goods advanced 1.2 percent, and the index for final demand services moved up 0.3 percent.

- Prices for final demand advanced 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in February.

- Markets didn't know what to do with this on Friday.

PPI MoM

Company Stats - Recession?

- According to FactSet: During Dec-March earnings calls, 47 cited the term “recession” during their earnings calls for the fourth quarter.

-- This number is below the 5-year average of 85 and below the 10-year average of 61.

- This quarter will mark the lowest number of S&P 500 companies citing “recession” on earnings calls for a quarter since Q4 2021

Companies Citing Recession

% of Companies

Reddit

- IPO slated to be live sometime this week (March 21)

- 5X Oversubscribed

- Reddit began sending invitations to users to participate in the IPO based on one of two measurements of engagement on the site: either the number of actions they’ve taken as a moderator of a forum on the platform (also known as a “subreddit”) or their “karma” score, a figure that indicates a user’s contributions and reputation among other users on the site.

- Reddit plans to list 22 million shares at a price between $31 and $34, according to the latest version of the IPO prospectus it filed Monday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company stands to take in between $473.6 million and $519.4 million from the sale of roughly 15.3 million shares.

- Valuation > $6 billion

- Question???? Is Reddit profitable? NO -  However, the company has been substantially growing revenue in the past few years.

---- Reddit's total revenue in 2023 was $804 million, up 21% from $666 million in 2022.

----- Reddit's net loss for 2023 narrowed to $90.8 million.

Yields - 10 YR

- Highest level of 2024

- technically breaking out - if Fed moves a bot more hawkish - 4.50% is next test

Yields

Japan Yields

- The Bank of Japan is set to raise its key interest rate for the first time in 17 years on Tuesday following its two-day monetary policy meeting, Kyodo reported.

- The BOJ will raise the short-term rate to the 0%-0.1% range, the report said. The development reflects growing confidence among policymakers that a virtuous cycle of wage growth and price hikes is in motion following this year’s labor-management pay negotiations

- RAISING TO ZERO!

Global Rates - Who Will CUT First?

First Mover?

ELON

- Increasing prices on Model Y by $1,000

--- Stock moves up by 6%

- Goldman Downgrades - Perhaps this is why stock moved up - another bug downgrade - stock in the toilet - nowhere else to go

--- SpaceX is building a network of hundreds of spy satellites under a classified contract with a U.S. intelligence agency, five sources familiar with the program said, demonstrating deepening ties between billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk's space company and national security agencies.

Elon - Ketamine